Copper prices in just a month or so there was shocked everyone. Why investors suddenly so much to look at the same copper worth pondering.
The latest data show that speculators hold copper net warehouse has hit a record since 2006, the highest since the data record.
The latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for Quikstrike, a Chicago-based futures analysis tool, showed that the long positions in the Managed Money for the week ended Nov. 29 increased 3907 from last week to 104367 hand, short positions are reduced by 682 to 23,399 hand hand, net net long record in 2006, the highest since the record data.
Since the outbreak of copper prices since October 25, managed funds (Managed Money) long positions from 56342 hand surge to 104367 hand, or as high as 85.2% over the same period managed funds short positions from 72984 hand to 23399 hand, / RTI & gt;
At the same time, Chicago Mercantile Exchange COMEX copper futures in Asia in November volume rose more than double the chain to more than 57,412 hands, the Asian session, the proportion of turnover rose to more than 38% of the world, reflecting the Asian speculative and long-type funds The rate of participation in the copper market is also quite positive.
Wall Street news article mentioned earlier, some analysts believe that this crazy rise in copper prices mainly due to the market is expected to major consumer demand in China strong, and Trump came to power, the market expected the United States will increase infrastructure spending.
The Wall Street Journal quoted Tai Wong, head of BMO Capital’s metals trading, as saying that copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange have fallen by 10 percent since October 25, a positive sign of a recovery in demand.
However, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) in October report has shown that in January-August 2016 global copper market supply surplus of 90,000 tons.
London research firm CRU Group earlier this month is expected next year, global refined copper production will be an excess of 420,000 tons, the highest surplus in eight years.
International rating agency Moody’s believes that, including copper, including the recent rise in base metals is not sustainable.
Moody’s senior vice president Carol Cowan said most metals markets are in surplus, the supply and demand fundamentals have not been substantially improved.
Barclays that Trump’s policy so far is just a framework, the details are quite vague. And the specific objectives of these policies and how to implement it is difficult to say. The main driving force for rising copper prices is still in China’s stimulus program.
The world’s largest listed copper company Freeport CEO Richard Adkerson also believes that Trump stimulus in the long run is a boost to the role of copper, but not the extent. The most important thing is the need for China to be in a positive economic growth environment.
Citigroup said in a report released on Monday, with the global economic growth accelerated in 2017, most of the raw materials will be strong.
Citigroup expects global growth in 2017 will rise to 2.7%. The over supply situation in the commodity market has finally disappeared and the balance has been restored. In the next 6-12 months, bullish on crude oil, copper, zinc and wheat, not optimistic about a small number of commodities, including coal, iron ore, gold and soybeans.
However, financial and financial blog Zerohedge warned that the current relative strength index (RSI) shows that copper has been seriously overbought.
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